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Lex Fridman · 2023-10-11

Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East | Lex Fridman Podcast #399

Jared Kushner breaks down Hamas's October 7 attack, the Abraham Accords, and the art of high-stakes geopolitical dealmaking.

Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East | Lex Fridman Podcast #399
The guest

Jared Kushner: Former senior adviser to President Donald Trump and author of 'Breaking History.' He led negotiations on the Abraham Accords, the USMCA trade deal, and the First Step Act prison-reform law.

What this episode covers

Recorded across two sessions bracketing the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, the conversation opens with Kushner's reaction to the assault and his argument that Hamas, not Israel, is the chief obstacle to Palestinian flourishing. He then traces how the Trump administration pressured Iran, eliminated the ISIS caliphate, and brokered six normalization deals via the Abraham Accords. The bulk of the episode is a deep dive into Kushner's negotiation philosophy: building trust, working backward from a first-principles outcome, and creating a 'golden bridge' for reluctant leaders. He shares behind-the-scenes stories from North Korea back channels, Saudi Arabia and MBS, China and Xi Jinping, and the Russia-collusion investigation, plus personal reflections on his father's imprisonment and the books that shaped his thinking.

Recommended on this episode

BookRecommendedISBN verified

Thirteen Days in September: Carter, Begin, and Sadat at Camp David

Lawrence Wright

“I would highly recommend it”
“amazing book I would highly recommend it a very entertaining read and and something that at least gave me encouragement to to keep going”— Jared Kushner
BookRecommended

How to Do Great Work

Paul Graham

“I would encourage anyone listening to go and find it and read the entire thing”
“I would encourage anyone listening to go and find it and read the entire thing because it's something that really spoke to me”— Jared Kushner
BookRecommendedISBN verified

Prisoners of Geography

Tim Marshall

“I loved every minute of it ... it's an unbelievable book”
“I just found it on Amazon randomly but I loved every minute of it ... it's an unbelievable book for anyone who's interested in geopolitics”— Jared Kushner
BookRecommendedISBN verified

The Hundred-Year Marathon

Michael Pillsbury

“I highly recommend it to everyone”
“it's a very very big book and I think it's a book definitely worth reading ... so I highly recommend it to everyone”— Jared Kushner

The guest's own work

BookBy the guestISBN verified

Breaking History: A White House Memoir

Jared Kushner

“former senior adviser to the president during the Donald Trump Administration and author of breaking history a White House Memoir”— Lex Fridman

Also referenced (named, not recommended)

BookReferencedISBN verified

The Guns of August

Barbara Tuchman

“you told me about the guns of August by Barbara tuckman it's a it's a book on World War I and I went down a whole Rabbit Hole there”— Lex Fridman
BookReferencedISBN verified

The Great Degeneration

Niall Ferguson

“you also mentioned the book The Great degeneration by uh Neil Ferguson an awesome historian he's been on this podcast it helped you understand the inefficiencies of government regulation”— Lex Fridman
BookReferencedISBN verified

Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

Graham Allison

“you have a great book also by Graham Allison that he writes about you know are we destined for war between us and China”— Jared Kushner

Big reveals from this episode

  • Claims the Obama-era deal put Iran on a 'glide path' to a nuclear weapon with $150 billion that funded Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
  • Asserts with 'absolute certainty' that the October 7 attack never would have happened if Trump were still president.
  • Reveals a back channel to North Korea was opened through an old business contact, leading to the Trump-Kim meeting.
  • Says the Abraham Accords' opening move was a single phone call between Trump, Netanyahu, and MBZ.
  • Trump told King Salman to route Saudi dealings through Kushner because his own cabinet didn't believe in MBS.
  • Calls UNRWA 'incredibly corrupt' and argues a permanent refugee organization was created to perpetuate the conflict.
  • Responds directly to criticism over the Saudi PIF's $2 billion investment in his firm, saying he broke no laws or ethics rules.
  • States '100%' that the war in Ukraine would have been avoided had Trump remained president.

Worth remembering

  • The First Step Act dropped recidivism for program participants to 12% versus a 47% federal average.
  • In Obama's last year, the private sector spent 6 million man-hours complying with new federal regulations.
  • Kushner says the administration built about 470 miles of border barrier in roughly two years.
  • The USMCA covered about $1.3 trillion in annual trade between the US, Mexico, and Canada.
  • Sanctions cut Iran's oil sales from ~2.6 million barrels per day to about 100,000 under Trump.
  • Kushner helped broker the largest oil-production cut in history during the COVID demand collapse.
  • On a call, Trump told Trudeau the Canadians burned down the White House in 1812 to deflect tariff complaints.
  • MBS told Kushner he sets 100 goals expecting to fail at 50, so he still accomplishes 50 things.
  • Kushner cites West Bank GDP per capita as comparable to Jordan's and higher than Egypt's circa 2019.
  • The famous 'KUSHNER' bulletproof-vest photo came from an unplanned trip to Iraq with Gen. Dunford.