Russ Roberts — The Decisions that Define Us

Tim Ferriss talks with economist Russ Roberts about his book Wild Problems, which argues that major life choices like whether to marry, have children, or move countries are not amenable to data or rational cost-benefit analysis. Roberts opens with a eulogy for his father, drawing out the idea that quality time demands quantity time, then unpacks Hayek's warnings against 'scientism' and the limits of expert prediction. The conversation ranges across Darwin's awkward pro-con list on marriage, the mathematics of choosing a partner, lessons from Bill Belichick about increasing your denominator, and Roberts's decision to move to Israel to lead Shalem College. They close on religion, prayer, transcendence, and how to stay grounded amid success.

• Roberts reads from his eulogy for his father, who 'chose us' over a literary career, and argues that 'quality time demanded quantity time' - you cannot just turn on meaningful connection on demand.
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• Roberts explains 'scientism' - things that look scientific and fool people into thinking they understand something they don't - and why economists can't predict crashes or interest rates the way astronomers predict planetary positions.
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• Darwin at 29 made a literal handwritten pro-con list about marriage where the negatives outnumbered the positives (a key plus being 'female chit-chat... better than a dog'), then married anyway and wrote 'QED.'
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• Roberts describes the 37% rule from the Penelope/secretary problem for choosing a partner, then argues 'best' isn't even well-defined because life is a matrix of attributes with no single score to maximize.
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• Roberts argues Bill Belichick (an economics major) trades down in the NFL draft to increase his denominator - getting more picks because he can't predict which players succeed, like index investing or venture capital.
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• Roberts explains he moved to Israel to lead Shalem College not mainly for fun but because its mission - cultivating the well-lived life through great texts - answered a sense of 'is this what I'm called to do.'
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• Roberts shares he's writing a book on prayer 'for people who struggle with prayer' and describes transcendence via vivid stars on the California coast, redwood Shakespeare, and encounters with people under duress.
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• Roberts turns the interview around to ask Tim how he keeps his ego in check; Tim credits perfectionism, the maxim 'you're never as good or as bad as they say,' and friends like Matt Mullenweg who stress-test his views.
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• Roberts's two rap videos on the ideas of Keynes and Hayek, made with filmmaker John Papola, have more than 13 million YouTube views.
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• EconTalk launched in 2006 and has more than 800 weekly episodes; past guests include Christopher Hitchens, Martha Nussbaum, Michael Lewis, Angela Duckworth, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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• At the University of Chicago, a corrupted Lord Kelvin quote was carved in stone: 'if it cannot be measured your knowledge is meagre and unsatisfactory.'
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• Roberts has been married 33 years and has four children spread across London, California, Maryland, and Australia.
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• Hayek won the Nobel Prize in 1974; his acceptance speech 'The Pretence of Knowledge' uses a football game analogy for the limits of prediction.
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• Roberts lives by the Talmud line: 'It is not up to you to finish the work, but neither are you free to desist from it.'
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• Roberts estimates that reading a book a week for 50 years yields only about 2,500 books in a lifetime, out of at least 100,000 available - so choose carefully.
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• Roberts keeps the Jewish Sabbath, which rules out Friday-night plans like a Paul McCartney concert; he was not religious for much of his life and previously ate lobster and pork.
  01:33:49
• From Taleb's 'skin in the game,' Roberts learned that even oblivious imprudent risk-takers get weeded out - as long as you don't bail out losers.
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• In venture capital, the hoped-for ratio is roughly one unicorn (a billion-dollar company) per ten investments, and you can't know in advance which one.
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